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Bitcoin Bulls Out of Steam Until Halving

Bitcoin Bulls Out of Steam Until Halving

February 24, 2022

Huobi’s Du Jun believes that we will only see a bitcoin bull market after the 2024 halving.  

The bitcoin halving is a pre-programmed event that halves the reward for mining new blocks roughly every four years. The current block reward is 6.25 BTC. Around June 2024, the halving will reduce it to 3.215 BTC.

Ever-increasing Scarcity

Scarcity increases as miners produce fewer coins. And scarcity boosts the bitcoin price. More and more investors jump in as the price skyrockets and eventually overheats. The meltdown or ‘crypto winter’ following this phase can last a long time.

The last bitcoin halving happened in May 2020, when the cryptocurrency traded around USD 9,000. At the end of October 2020, a strong rally started, taking bitcoin to $68,000. Since November 2021, the crypto market has been under pressure again, and bitcoin has fallen below USD 40,000.

"If the cycle repeats itself, we are now at the beginning of a bear market," said Du Jun. "It is difficult to predict because there are many other factors that also influence the market, such as geopolitical tensions."

Next Bull Market to Start at the End of 2024

"If we don't get a new bitcoin bull market until after the halving, then it will have to wait until the end of 2024 or early 2025," says Du Jun.

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